Mexico in February: Weather, Carnaval, and Whale Watching

February continues Mexico’s dry season and adds Carnaval — one of the country’s most exuberant festival seasons. The weather is excellent across all major regions, Monarch butterflies are at their peak, and grey whales in Baja California are at their most interactive.

Weather

City	Avg High °C	Avg Low °C	Rain Days	Notes
Mexico City	23	7	2	Coldest nights of the year, warm days
Cancún	29	20	2	Dry season, excellent beach conditions
Guadalajara	27	10	1	Dry, warm afternoons
Oaxaca	27	10	2	One of the best months for the city
Mérida	30	18	2	Warm, best cenote visibility
Puerto Vallarta	28	19	1	Peak dry season on the Pacific
San Cristóbal	18	5	2	Cool but often sunny by midday
La Paz (Baja)	25	12	1	Peak grey whale season

Dry season holds across the Caribbean coast, Pacific, and central highlands. February is often the coldest month in highland areas — Mexico City averages daytime highs of 22 C but nights can drop to 7-10 C, and frost is not unknown in the higher-elevation neighbourhoods. The Yucatan Peninsula and Pacific coast are warm and comfortable at 27-30 C with little rainfall. Chiapas highlands (San Cristobal) remain cool at 14-20 C during the day.

Cenote visibility is at its best during this dry period. The underground rivers feeding the cenotes carry less sediment when there has been no recent rainfall, making February excellent for snorkelling and diving in cenotes like Dos Ojos, Gran Cenote, and Cenote Azul.

Carnaval

Carnaval falls in the week before Ash Wednesday, with the exact dates shifting between February and early March depending on the year. Two cities dominate:

Mazatlan: One of the largest Carnavals in Mexico and the third largest in the world by some measures. The Malecon fills with floats, brass bands, queen coronations, and fireworks over six days. The city’s population effectively doubles. Accommodation books out months in advance — reserve by November for the best options. Expect significant price surcharges at hotels and restaurants.

Veracruz: The most traditional Carnaval in Mexico, with deep Caribbean and Afro-Mexican musical roots. The port city’s proximity to Cuba historically brought Caribbean rhythms that remain central to the celebration. Son jarocho music and comparsas (dance troupes) fill the streets.

Merida and Ensenada also have significant Carnaval celebrations, though smaller in scale. Merida’s Carnaval has a distinct Yucatecan character with jarana dance and traditional dress.

Dia de la Candelaria (2 February)

This religious holiday marks the end of the Christmas season. Whoever found the figurine in the rosca de reyes bread on 6 January is expected to host a tamale party on this day. Churches across Mexico hold candle-lit ceremonies and blessing of seeds. In Tlacotalpan (Veracruz), the Candelaria celebrations are particularly large, with a running of the bulls through the town streets and a procession of the Virgin along the river.

Monarch butterflies

Peak season in the Michoacan sanctuaries (El Rosario and Sierra Chincua). February is typically the clearest month for seeing the butterfly colonies — the trees are covered in a dense orange blanket of millions of butterflies, and on warm afternoons they take flight in swarms that fill the sky. The sanctuaries sit at approximately 3,000 m altitude — mornings are cold (often below 5 C), and the hike up to the colonies takes 30-60 minutes on steep trails. Local guides are available at the sanctuary entrances and are worth hiring.

Whale watching

Grey whales are at their peak in Baja California Sur’s lagoons. San Ignacio Lagoon and Magdalena Bay offer the most intimate encounters — the whales are famously “friendly” here, approaching small pangas and allowing visitors to touch them. This is one of the world’s premier wildlife experiences, and February is the best month for it.

Humpback whales continue in Banderas Bay off Puerto Vallarta through February. Sighting rates remain high, with mothers and calves increasingly visible.

Spring break preview

The last week of February sees early spring break arrivals in Cancun, particularly from US universities. The Hotel Zone takes on a party atmosphere that intensifies through March. If this is not what you are looking for, travel in the first three weeks of February or choose a Caribbean base outside the Hotel Zone — Isla Mujeres, Holbox, or Bacalar are all alternatives with a different pace.

Valentine’s Day

Mexican Valentine’s Day (Dia de San Valentin) is also celebrated as Dia del Amor y la Amistad (Day of Love and Friendship), broadening the occasion beyond romantic couples. Restaurants in tourist areas add set menus and prices reflect demand. Some colonial cities — San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato — are particularly popular for Valentine’s weekends and hotels charge accordingly.

What to pack

• Light clothing for coastal areas, warm layers for highland evenings
• Earplugs and patience if visiting a Carnaval city — the music runs late
• Binoculars for whale watching in Baja or butterfly viewing in Michoacan

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Related City Guides

• Mexico City Travel Guide
• Puerto Vallarta Travel Guide
• Mérida Travel Guide
• Veracruz Travel Guide